Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Use this forum to ask or post about 11:11, 12:34, 2:22, 22:22 etc. The wake-up digital clock signals of our loving celestial friends. They also delight in flicking on or off street lights, traffic lights and ringing door bells.
ConfirmationBias
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Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by ConfirmationBias »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

You can look at the clock 1000 times during the day, you will not even remember the 999 times you look at the clock and see 23:11, 14:26 or 03:28

You will remember the times you see 11:11 and 01:23 or 12:34 because of a system called Confirmation Bias.

If you go shopping, you will see thousands of people, more than the 1440 minutes in a day, yet you will not remember any of them unless they stand out, or you recognize one of them.

This is all what is happening.

I just read a post on here that some threads were deleted - but they don't encourage that. I hope this thread won't be deleted - if the admins are honest they will not delete it and we can discuss it normally. I see at least two or three of these repeating times during every single day: 10:10, 11:11, 22:22, 23:23, 00:00, 04:44

There are 1440 minutes, 1/60 minutes match the hour, giving 24 matchers, 1/60 also match the hour for 0 prefix (04:04, 04:44) giving 9 more, and 1/60 match mirroring for 13 times (01:10, 02:20, 21:12).

If using twelve hour clocks, in 24 hours: There are 1440 minutes, 2/60 minutes match the hour, giving 24 matchers, 2/60 also match the hour for - prefix (4:04 as well as 4:44 (first condition)) giving 18 more, and 1/60 match mirroring for 2 times (10:01, 12:21)

In Europe 46/1440 easy to recognize patters means 3.2% of the time you look at a clock you will see one of there - which is 1 in 30.

Get a clicker counter, and count how many times you see a clock all day. If you see a clock only 15 times a day, once a waking hour, then you have a 50% chance of seeing one of these times. But you will have seen a lot more "insignificant" times.

In US: 44, almost the same (and I didn't spend too long working it out).

So, in the interests of open-mindedness and scientific debate: How many times do you look at a clock a day, just be honest.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by Geoff »

Dear new friend with the funny name,

I doubt your post will survive, because I doubt you are actually as open minded as you like to think you are.

Seeing 11:11 is not a case of confirmation bias. I will prove that to you.

A year or two back, I woke three nights in a row. It was unusual for me to wake at night, and I could not easily see my digital clock from my sleeping position. Nevertheless, exactly three times, or once per night, I made the effort to look at the clock. The first time it was 3:33am. The second night, it was 4:44am. The third night, it was 11:22pm. This sort of experience happens to many of us. I have worked the odds out, its astronomical. Perhaps you will admit not many people are able to sleep peacefully while keeping an eye on the clock? If you read George's book, you will find he used to wake night after night after night at 11:11pm. We do try to alter our clocks, and that never makes a difference.

However, there are far more people that do not have this experience than those that do. And some of them like to come up with explanations like you have. There is another problem with your theory, and its this one:
ConfirmationBias wrote:You can look at the clock 1000 times during the day, you will not even remember the 999 times you look at the clock and see 23:11, 14:26 or 03:28
WE DONT TRY TO LOOK AT THE CLOCK. It just happens,

On the other hand, we would be the first to agree that PATTERN RECOGNITION has to play its part. But that pattern varies from person to person.

If you are genuinely interested, leave your watch at home, and STOP CLOCK WATCHING. (No doubt your productivity will improve!!)

Recently George, Sandy and I met for lunch in North Sydney. We sat in the sun, on a park bench. Right past us went a car with the NSW number 1111. The only car in NSW with that number (and the number is no doubt worth some hundreds of thousands of dollars) I dont know how many cars are registered in NSW, but there are about 6 million people.

A few years back George and Sandy caught the train up to see me. Just at the moment I opened my front door to drive and pick them up, my phone received a text. The image is on this site. It was from 1111, even though that is not possible.

take care,
Geoff
"Slip your hand into the hand of God and you will never walk alone"
said Chief Flaming Arrow.
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by sammy »

Dear CB,


It seems you have posted a similar thought to what hosnappp (a new friend) posted last week, and sadly chose not to return – probably because he was looking for a fight. We do not do that here. We are not here to convince you of this phenomenon; that is for you to decide – on your own. If you ever change your viewpoint, we will gladly help you find answers, but in the mean time I will ask you to refer to:

“hosnappp’s” thread (which obviously was not deleted):
http://board.1111angels.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=19686


the rules
http://board.1111angels.com/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=109

and FAQ’s,
This is the typical situation.

1. Stage 1. You start seeing a number sequence. It could be any number at all, but for lots of folks around the world it includes 11:11. Why? Obviously because its memorable, and attention getting. If you see it once, you might notice it, and if you see it five times in two weeks, the chances are you will be conscious of it. Elsewhere we have explained that the midwayers were reduced to 1,111 for two thousand years, and when we humans invented the digital clock, they saw an opportunity to use 11:11 as a calling card. So, at this first stage, the numbers are simply prompts, or attention getters. They don't mean anything, except "Hey look at this"

2. Stage 2. You are now focussed on finding out where these come from, or why you are seeing them. At this stage they generally change, just to prove they can. It's part of proving to you that YOU aren't doing this, consciously or unconsciously. Some folks spend years in this stage. It's easy to convince yourself that YOU are just noticing something that's bound to be around some percentage of the time. But smart folks change the clocks, and avoid looking for numbers, they alter the chances till they are certain it can't be random. Eventually you, like us will concede it's not random - it's caused by someone, and that someone is not you.

3. Stage 3. If in your search you come across something like Doreen Virtue's list, the angels aren't stupid. They can use that list to communicate. It doesn't really prove much except they are smart. The same thing occurs with dream books. Buy one, any one, and your angels will use it.
http://board.1111angels.com/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=4

LOVE!!!!
Sammy
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by ConfirmationBias »

Geoff wrote:Dear new friend with the funny name,

I doubt your post will survive, because I doubt you are actually as open minded as you like to think you are.

Seeing 11:11 is not a case of confirmation bias. I will prove that to you.

take care,
Geoff
Hi Geoff,

Thanks for the reply. Nothing I can say, especially along the lines of "I am open minded" can convince anyone that I am open to debate, but I hope the cordial discourse and agreeable discussion can show that most of us here are open-minded!

Although I would hope that we all maintain that in a nice open, warm debate, there is little room for logical fallacies - so please, if I nudge you slightly to restate something, it is just in the interest of ensuring an open discussion.

What I am aiming here is to be open - I've made a hypothesis that 1 in 30 times you look at a clock, you will see a repeating number.

A lot of days go by, in fact most days, where I see 11:11 and 22:22, I actually saw 12:21 just now too. Including :59 and :00 means that one in every seven times you look at a clock you think 'weird'.

Of course like wkaing up beofre the alram geos off. Happens to everyone (anti-google trapped, sorry for spelling it in such a way! Please don't rewrite it in a google way) and for an entirely different reason.

Another thing I am open to discuss is, like with alrms, we might learn to have a trigger reminder at 11:11 if we start thinking too much about it.

Most days I will see 11:11, 12:12, 13:13, 14:14, 15:15, on the same day. I have a clock on my computer, desk, coffee maker.

So, in good spirits, I hope you will see that I am open to listening to you, I will address your post in another reply now, but one cautionary remark: What do you mean by "won't survive" - you think subsequent replies on my part might cause someone to moderate and delete this thread, or that the topic of Confirmation Bias is completely taboo?

I hope neither of these are true, and we can engage in light-hearted and interesting discussions.

My aim in this is to have people take note of the times they look at a clock and it isn't 11:11 and tally them.

Thanks! I look forward to lots of interesting discussions with open-minded folk, you might learn I am more open-minded than you care to credit me for.
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by ConfirmationBias »

sammy wrote:Dear Biased (ok you changed it to CB :) ),

It seems you have posted a similar thought to what hosnappp (a new friend) posted last week, and sadly chose not to return – probably because he was looking for a fight. We do not do that here.
Absolutely agree with you - what is the point in fighting and bringing ego into this? Ideas are pure and simple, why complicate them - let's just stick to clean discussions.

sammy wrote:
We are not here to convince you of this phenomenon; that is for you to decide – on your own. If you ever change your viewpoint, we will gladly help you find answers, but in the mean time I will ask you to refer to:
I never said you were here to convince me otherwise! I appreciate the introduction however. I am here just to discuss this in the light of confirmation bias. I am going to pick up on the point Geoff made about pattern recognition, but mostly I think we can discuss this, and other effects (Baader-Meinhoff Phenomenon perhaps?) which also collude to give rise to questioning one's self.
sammy wrote:
“hosnappp’s” thread (which obviously was not deleted):
http://board.1111angels.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=19686

the rules
http://board.1111angels.com/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=109


LOVE!!!!
Sammy
Thanks for the rules, it isn't my intention of straying from the straight and narrow on here.

The reason for 11:11 - in a 12 hour clock, it is the only repeating digits, and it occurs at a time that even the most laggardly students are awake – so therefore it is the single most likely time to make you notice it, because it has uniformity and entropy. Being in Europe, we see 22:22 almost as much (you need to be a night owl, most people have clocks near where they work) and the counterpart 23:23 (which is not as prominent as a shape as 22:22).

Just raising some interesting points - I hope we can work together to discuss this out in an open and friendly manner.
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by ConfirmationBias »

Geoff wrote:The third night, it was 11:22pm.
Introducing non-matching pairing numbers means that in the 120 minutes between 11:59 and 03:00 there are 23 instances where you could remark on the number that was shown. That is better than a dice roll. 1-in-8 (said 1-in-5, but it is 1 in 7.8) chance of looking at the clock and seeing a symmetric or repeating digit.

All I say is, people should notice more at how many times a clock is in their view and they are not seeing a repeating digit.
Geoff wrote: This sort of experience happens to many of us. I have worked the odds out, its astronomical.
As a statistician, the odds are 1-in-7.8, and if you take what happened to you, you would expect it to happen a few times a year, even seeing 10:10 11:11 12:12 would be a 3-times-a-year occurrence if you were to draw three random times each night. But seeing these number is ~guaranteed every day if you see a clock more than 5 times a day. Bear in mind that your visual system will draw the clock to your attention when you subconscious is thinking about these numbers.

Just like when I have a flight, and I've woken up at 4:45 am, without the aid of an alarm that was erroneously screwed up because I set it to the right time, but wrong timezone, so it would have gone off at the wrong 5am. You admit that the body has its own clock, and you admit that confirmation bias is an entirely true concept?
If you read George's book, you will find he used to wake night after night after night at 11:11pm. We do try to alter our clocks, and that never makes a difference.
Well, I can't comment on hearsay, but I've also woken up morning after morning 1 minute before my alarm goes off. Countless times. The weird thing is, when I change my work schedule... and start waking up at a different time - it happens again.
However, there are far more people that do not have this experience than those that do.
I think far more people have this experience than those who don't. I believe everyone sees 11:11 on a regular basis, everyone with a clock that is. I believe that everyone you ask will tell you that they have seen 11:11 a lot of times and found it weird, everyone.

Everyone. Do you agree with this?
If you are genuinely interested, leave your watch at home, and STOP CLOCK WATCHING. (No doubt your productivity will improve!!)
I don't wear a watch, and I am not sure what you are asking me to do here - stop looking at the clock and see if I happen across a 1-in-8 chance of seeing some number?
Recently George, Sandy and I met for lunch in North Sydney. We sat in the sun, on a park bench. Right past us went a car with the NSW number 1111. The only car in NSW with that number (and the number is no doubt worth some hundreds of thousands of dollars) I dont know how many cars are registered in NSW, but there are about 6 million people.
There could be 600 billion people, it doesn't affect the odds of what you saw - you can't have 600 trillion combinations in a four digit number plate, there are always 10,000. 0000-9999 - now depending on the plate formating they might not use zero, but I digress. Since people can apply for numbers, people like having digits that match, so I also often notice repeating number plates. I also don't notice thousands of more plates every day.

Not that I don't appreciate what you are saying, but to follow:
A few years back George and Sandy caught the train up to see me. Just at the moment I opened my front door to drive and pick them up, my phone received a text. The image is on this site. It was from 1111, even though that is not possible.
Well it is possible, you can send any callerid with a text, and there are many short-number services, and 4 digits are often network codes. But the way forward here isn't to try and let you think I am disagreeing with you, absolutely not! I am agreeing with you. I will go outside now, and find some 11:11 just to show you.

I am not saying this is special, I am saying it is everywhere, and everyone sees it. I am not saying you don't see these things, I am saying you see them, and I bet you could see a lot more.

What do you think? Thanks
Last edited by ConfirmationBias on Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by sammy »

Yep, I changed it. If you read through my posts, I typically try to spread the love. Usually I can find something loving within the "vibe" of a post. Now maybe chalk it up to a terrible nights sleep, but even though your choice of words say that your intent is pure, the "vibe" I got was otherwise. I apologize if I was wrong...Trying to give you the benefit of the doubt working on broken sleep.
The reason for 11:11 - in a 12 hour clock, it is the only repeating digits, and it occurs at a time that even the most laggardly students are awake – so therefore it is the single most likely time to make you notice it, because it has uniformity and entropy. Being in Europe, we see 22:22 almost as much (you need to be a night owl, most people have clocks near where they work) and the counterpart 23:23 (which is not as prominent as a shape as 22:22).
My first experience with number sequences was over a decade ago. I was at a Burger King ordering up for the family. I happened to look at my receipt and the total was $22.22, the time was 2:22 and the cashier number was 222. I recall pointing it out to the family because it seemed odd. For another few years I would notice 2's everywhere...off and on. Sometimes it would be several times a day, then weeks would go by with no 2's, then they would start up again.

Around 2005 or 2006 my 2's all but disappeared and were replaced by 1's. Be it on a clock, receipt, license plate...all kinds of things. During this same period I started having "synchronicities" related to the "metaphysical". You have to understand that I was raised Catholic, with a touch of Jehovah's Witness, so I knew nothing of the metaphysical. Virtual strangers would introduce a metaphysical term and I would hear the same term from several others over the course of the week. My youngest child started seeing auras and having prophetic dreams. Eventually I caved to the plethora of oddities being thrown in my face and started looking up some of the terms. During this time my 1's changed to other combinations like 3's or 5's, then back to 1's. Eventually I looked it up on line and landed on here on terra firma.

LOVE!!!!
Sammy
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by ConfirmationBias »

I agree in spreading positivity!
sammy wrote:
My first experience with number sequences was over a decade ago. I was at a Burger King ordering up for the family. I happened to look at my receipt and the total was $22.22, the time was 2:22 and the cashier number was 222. I recall pointing it out to the family because it seemed odd. For another few years I would notice 2's everywhere...off and on. Sometimes it would be several times a day, then weeks would go by with no 2's, then they would start up again.
Well, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law is a nice place to start here - look at natural numbers, more likely by far to start with 1 and 2, especially financial numbers. Burger king receipts are much much much more likely to start with a 1 or a 2, and 1's and 2's are more likely in them because of their pricing structures. But, let's say it was random - the odds of everything being 2222, 222, 22, 2222 are not extraordinary, they are ordinary.
Around 2005 or 2006 my 2's all but disappeared and were replaced by 1's. Be it on a clock, receipt, license plate...all kinds of things.
You started looking for patterns, and just as Benford's Law shows, you saw 1's more often. Isn't this merely showing that when you start getting confirmation bias you will start seeing the most commonly occurring number sequences?
During this same period I started having "synchronicities" related to the "metaphysical".
I don't know what they means :?
My youngest child started seeing auras and having prophetic dreams.
How old were they, and how did they communicate that they were seeing "auras". That said, I am not here to deny anything, but just say that:

This isn't uncommon - everyone, not fewer, but more, and by more I mean: Everyone, sees this, everyone sees 11:11 and other numbers.

Absolutely everyone. Agreed? So, if everyone is seeing it, doesn't that just mean that there are a lot of 1's and 2's around? (Benford's law).

My four reasons to be here:

Show you that people can disagree in amicable terms
Foster rational and open-minded debate
Show that this happens to everyone
Start some discussions on how this is everywhere, and not uncommon or rare.

Not to deny this or say it is common or rare, the opposite - it happens all the time to everyone.
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by sammy »

Dear CB,
You started looking for patterns, and just as Benford's Law shows, you saw 1's more often. Isn't this merely showing that when you start getting confirmation bias you will start seeing the most commonly occurring number sequences?
I can assure you that searching for number combinations was the farthest thing from my mind (either conscious or subconscious). I developed a very odd and scarey set of physical symptoms at this exact point in my life, and my entire focus was trying to find the cause. Benford's law fails explain why or how the patterns change to less "likely" numbers like "888" or why my son always sees 748. Or how my husband (who by they way doesn't buy into this stuff) was bowled over by 060606 the other day...and when you look up what Doreen Virtue says about repeating 06's it happens to correspond directly to several conversations we had had over the preceding days....and yesterday I was slammed with 48's - again, looking at Doreen Virtue's "Angel Numbers" and sequences, how odd is it that this coincided with my eldest leaving for the army? (By the way, I saw 48 on my odometer, a license plate and clock radio all at the same time while sitting at a traffic light - and had never noticed 48's before this occasion...so I looked it up on line):
4's and 8's, such as 488 or 448 - This is a message from your angels that a phase of your life is about to end. They want you to know that as things slow down, they are with you and will be helping to guide you to a new situation better suited to your needs, desires, and purpose.
http://spiritlibrary.com/doreen-virtue/ ... the-angels
During this same period I started having "synchronicities" related to the "metaphysical".



I don't know what they means
Essentially coincidence, but at a level beyond "just coincidence".
How old were they, and how did they communicate that they were seeing "auras".
I pulled my son's story from another thread:
So he was about 12 or 13 at the time. I was driving him to karate and he said (out of the blue) "What's that thing called that goes all around your body?" I said "Skin???" He replied "no, the colorful thing"...I said "aura?" (Now I really knew NOTHING about metaphysics at this point, don't think I'd ever heard the word, and really knew nothing about auras except the word and general concept.) He said "YES! Auras! I have a theory about them. I think the color tells you what the person is like, and they change color with your mood." Obviously I asked why, and he replied "I was walking down the hall today and mine is usually blue, but when a kid bashed into me I got really mad and it turned red. Then when I was in English class I noticed that this kid who is always really quiet had a white one and a kid that always gets in trouble has a gray one."

Well, Jake has a history of eye problems, so the first thing I asked (thinking about how he said his had changed from blue to red) "Did everything look blue and then turn red?" He replied (like I was stupid) "NO! Just the thing around me!"

So I asked how long he has been seeing this...he got very quiet like he didn't want to respond. Finally he said "you'll think I'm crazy". I assured him I wouldn't and he told me it just started that day and he thought the dream he had was the reason for it. In his dream he had to go on a very long exhausting walk. He didn't want to go because it was very tiring, but he "knew" he had to. When he finally reached his destination there was a large building (he described it as an airplane hanger). Inside stood a large robot in the center of a stone circle. For some reason he knew he had to throw water on the robot and when he did, it crumbled to the ground. After that "they" (he never did tell me who "they" were) gave him some goggles, they were like night vision goggles, and he could see through walls, and see all kinds of amazing things. When he woke up he could see auras.

For me, the amazing part happened when I got home that night and started researching some of the terms he used. First I searched "stone circle". I brought up a few of the images and asked him if any looked similar. He picked this one: ( link gone ) and told me it was identical but his was inside this building.

Then I did a little research on Chalice Well (as this was the circle he said he saw). It turned out that many believe you can have your 3rd eye opened at Chalice Well.

He "turned off" this ability a few months to a year after this occurred. He was having many dreams that were prophetic, and many dreams that sounded prophetic (yet to be determined) that scared him. He also saw what sounded like a murder (like ghosts re-enacting the murder) while totally awake. He was very funny about this...I asked him why he "shut it off" and he replied again like I was stupid...he was very emphatic..."I didn't SHUT it off, I TURNED it off. If you SHUT it off you can't get it back, but if you TURN it off you can turn it back on whenever you want". He said it like EVERYONE should know that! :lol:
My four reasons to be here:

Show you that people can disagree in amicable terms
Foster rational and open-minded debate
Show that this happens to everyone
Start some discussions on how this is everywhere, and not uncommon or rare.

Not to deny this or say it is common or rare, the opposite - it happens all the time to everyone.
You are correct that it happens to many and frequently...the difference lays purely in the heart of the receiver.

Our reason for being here is simple, to foster spiritual growth, and to build bridges rather than break down walls.

LOVE!!!!
Sammy
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by sammy »

One more thought...Benford's law also doesn't explain why most of us see a particular combination (ie 333 OR 1111 OR 222) several times in a certain time frame...it is rather unsual to have several different combinations crop up in one day (which one would expect if we were "looking" for combinations). It also doesn't explain why the combinations fail to show there face from time to time even when we LOOK for it...or why the combinations that we notice change.
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by ConfirmationBias »

sammy wrote:Dear CB,
You started looking for patterns, and just as Benford's Law shows, you saw 1's more often. Isn't this merely showing that when you start getting confirmation bias you will start seeing the most commonly occurring number sequences?
I can assure you that searching for number combinations was the farthest thing from my mind (either conscious or subconscious).
I can see I have to write more carefully. When I say you "started looking for patterns", I don't mean that, I mean:

You were remembering a pattern, therefore a pattern was invoking a memory and a familiarity.

When I say "you started looking for patterns", I mean "You were experiencing confirmation bias, on some very common numbers, on very common and uninteresting events that the brain perceives as patterns, and your mind expects to be less common than they actually are, as shown with the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon.
The phenomenon bears some similarity to synchronicity, which is the experience of having a highly meaningful coincidence… such as having someone telephone you while you are thinking about them.
http://www.damninteresting.com/the-baad ... henomenon/

Benford's law fails explain why or how the patterns change to less "likely" numbers like "888" or why my son always sees 748. Or how my husband (who by they way doesn't buy into this stuff) was bowled over by 060606 the other day...and when you look up what Doreen Virtue says about repeating 06's it happens to correspond directly to several conversations we had had over the preceding days....and yesterday I was slammed with 48's


And I didn't say Benford's Law explains that - this is pure Confirmation Bias, you are expecting 48 to be something unexpected, despite being very common - right across from me the two biggest digits on a cars forecourt number is 48 48 48, huge black letters on yellow banners - on each car. This is where this all falls apart - I will tell you that this shows that this happens all the time to everyone, and that seeing 48 isn't special, and you will say it proves your point, and that really the universe is trying to tell me something, after all, why did you say 48? You could have said 79, 35, 55, 201, 214, 75, 20, 22, 455, 111 - all large numbers right in front of me, and many more around and about.

This isn't Benford's Law that you saw those numbers, 11:11 is rationalized by Benford's Law by the fact that it is the most inexplicable, yet equally common time that people see because the mind readily accepts things that are simple (patterns that repeat).

Everything you said is pure Confirmation Bias.
During this same period I started having "synchronicities" related to the "metaphysical".

I don't know what they means
Essentially coincidence, but at a level beyond "just coincidence".
Synchronicity is just that - you think they are a level 'beyond coincidence' but it is not. You are just experiencing confirmation bias because in this highly chaotic world you will see patterns. You are just seeing a rabbit in the clouds. Or a 48 in the clouds. ;)

Please read this, and let me know what you think
The reason for this is our brains’ prejudice towards patterns. Our brains are fantastic pattern recognition engines, a characteristic which is highly useful for learning, but it does cause the brain to lend excessive importance to unremarkable events. Considering how many words, names, and ideas a person is exposed to in any given day, it is unsurprising that we sometimes encounter the same information again within a short time. When that occasional intersection occurs, the brain promotes the information because the two instances make up the beginnings of a sequence. What we fail to notice is the hundreds or thousands of pieces of information which aren’t repeated, because they do not conform to an interesting pattern. This tendency to ignore the “uninteresting” data is an example of selective attention.

In point of fact, coincidences themselves are usually just an artifact of perception. We humans tend to underestimate the probability of coinciding events, so our expectations are at odds with reality. And non-coincidental events do not grab our attention with anywhere near the same intensity, because coincidences are patterns, and the brain actually stimulates us for successfully detecting patterns… hence their inflated value. In short, patterns are habit-forming.
Then I did a little research on Chalice Well (as this was the circle he said he saw). It turned out that many believe you can have your 3rd eye opened at Chalice Well.
How did you know what he saw was Chalice Well?
You are correct that it happens to many and frequently...the difference lays purely in the heart of the receiver.
That isn't what I am saying, I am saying it happens to everyone and always - do you agree that this happens to everyone, and always?
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by ConfirmationBias »

sammy wrote:One more thought...Benford's law also doesn't explain why most of us see a particular combination (ie 333 OR 1111 OR 222) several times in a certain time frame...it is rather unsual to have several different combinations crop up in one day (which one would expect if we were "looking" for combinations). It also doesn't explain why the combinations fail to show there face from time to time even when we LOOK for it...or why the combinations that we notice change.
Once again, I never said Benford's Law is to explain that - how is a law about natural occurrences of numbers to explain that - refuting an argument I never made is classed as a fallacy - therefore we should clear it up right away.

Confirmation Bias is why most of "you" (everyone, and I mean everyone - I am saying you do not see more combinations and do not have more coincidences than any single other person on earth) see a combination several times a day. Because if you read pi you will see patterns. if you read random numbers, you will see patterns - it is how the brain works, and it flags patterns.

Another thing to clear up immediately. "looking". There is no "looking" or "starting to look" - everyone will see patterns, the idea that you are somehow "deliberately not looking at the clock and not looking at patterns but some force it making you look" is an implication that stems from this refutal that I do not like.

Everyone recognizes patterns, there is no quote-unquote looking or otherwise, not capitalized LOOK or any other emphasis on the phrase of looking to denote a deliberate attempt to find patterns, which implicates a supernatural force brings them to your attention if you strenuously deny looking or ardently stress your intention to deliberately not look.

The combinations you notice change because you are just seeing pattens - any combination - pattern, is something you see - when you see one, that is what you see. A pattern.

Simple. Confirmation bias, and the brain rewarding you for spotting a pattern. Nothing to do with Benford's Law - that was brought up to explain why 11:11 is something so central in this - merely because in US you do not have 22:22 not 00:00, you only have one, and it seems "less likely" in your head to see it than 11:13, when in reality, it is equally as likely, but you presume not. This is how brains work.

This is why the words "impossible" and "beyond coincidence" are seemingly common here, when in reality the occurrences aren't either of those things.
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

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I hope Geoff isn't discouraged and gets back into this - I want to hear what he thinks about the number plate.

Do you guys talk on chat forums, in a more real-time setting at all?
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

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and yesterday I was slammed with 48's
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parasitic_number

Have a field day! Tell me, what do you think (read the article)
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

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HI CB,

Nope, no forums...what you see is what you get.

You've asked this question a couple of times:
That isn't what I am saying, I am saying it happens to everyone and always - do you agree that this happens to everyone, and always?
While I can't speak for everyone, it does not happen to me all the time. There are sometime LONG periods where I do not see "prompts" (this is the word we use for the number sequences). During those periods I find myself trying to watch the clock for a prompt and will end up missing the desired time. Hmmm... perhaps we were created to be biased to patterns for just this reason (to help create faith) ;) ;)

I really believe this all comes down to faith. I think we could discuss this all day, and some will find a statistical or scientific reason to discount it. Just as science attempts to discount God with the "Big Bang Theory"...which by the way, isn't it interesting that at CERN they are now looking for what they have dubbed the "God Particle" ;)

Funny, I am a very open minded person (I'll consider just about anything, BUT, it takes beating me repeatedly over the head for me to believe 100%)...I guess the repeated coincidences have finally beaten me into being a true believer. (I should probably thank you for pointing that out to me :D So THANK YOU!) I guess the bottom line for me is I can't convince you to see this my way (and that is not why we are here...we just want to help those who find themselves on the same path we are on), at the same time you happened to succeed in deepening my belief...If you choose to believe or not is up to you, and we will think nothing less of you. We each have our own path in life, this appears to be mine. You only need to allow your heart to feel for your truth...perhaps this is your truth.
How did you know what he saw was Chalice Well?
Hmmm...looks like my link is no longer a link...At the time, I did a google search for "stone circle" (which for some reason I can no longer duplicate), it brought up several images of different stone circles (including Stonehenge which I thought for sure would be what he saw since he may well have learned about it at some point...but nope!). I showed them to my son and asked if any of the images were similar to what he saw. He picked out this one http://wisdomwalk.net/images/chalice_well.jpg (Pisces symbol and all is what he saw)...I clicked on the image and it brought me to a site about ley lines (which I had coincidentally been studying at the time) and chalice well and "opening the third eye" (what would coincidentally give you the ability to see auras).

As for Geoff, he's probably sleeping right now...he'll be back on for sure tonight.

LOVE!!!!
Sammy
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by True »

Confirmation Bias
I too was like you when all this started happening. I could remember way back when I use to see 1212 all the time and I would chalk it up to chance or coincident. Thinking back now I remember when no matter what time it was I would see something 32 ALL the time. I remember rising up in my bed at 4:32 then laying right back down as if I just had to see the clock.

I use to say chance or coincident whenever I would see that number which was bombarding me for daily for months during that time.
It wasn’t until just recently that I decided to look up the numbers I was seeing often online that I found these angel numbers. I was as very skeptical of all of this as I am a skeptic.

I thought this was all some real out there ish and that some of these people were falling for a trap of some sort.
Until one morning I was awakened at 4:44 to multiple angels standing in my hallway right in front of my room door. What???????????? Are you kidding me??????????

I looked at them and I had to pee like no one’s business lol. For some reason my thoughts are this would normally freak me out and I would have a fit. However, I had no fear of them and I actually climbed out of bed and walked right pass two of them who stood at my room door while another walked ahead of me down the hall.

(Graphic) I sat on the toilet with the door open and one of them spoke to me and said “you are surrounded by love and light”. I said back to him (it) I am still kind of afraid. I came back into my room got back into bed and there started to what I would call introduce themselves to me. One healed my throat which was totally messed up even after taking meds etc.

I won’t go into the whole story but I did ask the name of an angel I was speaking with and the next day I looked up his name and there it was.
First, even without his name I could not deny what had transpired that morning. I was wide AWAKE for all of it. I am a person who spent many, many, many, years in church and never once was I visited by an angel let alone multiple angels.

Another point to point out was my mother saw them while they were in our home as well that morning. Thank you Jesus I was not going crazy!
I said all of this to point out that 4:44 is said to be “444 — Thousands of angels surround you at this moment, loving and supporting you. You have a very strong and clear connection with the angelic realm, and are an Earth angel yourself. You have nothing to fear—all is well.”

I know this to be truth because I experienced it firsthand.

Also as Sammy pointed out to you, we don’t go around looking for number sequences they simply find us. I have also notice once I actually start looking for the sequence it seems to change and I am bombarded with a whole new set of numbers. Go figure!

Lastly, you have posted a bit of readings from Wikipedia. Wikipedia is not very reliable because ANYONE can go on there and edit information according to his or her own understanding. Additionally, Wikipedia is also not allowed in academic environments due to that fact. As a college student and also graduate we were not allowed to quote anything from Wikipedia.

As a former skeptic turned believer I can only say to you allow what is your truth to be your truth, and allow what others truth to them to be their truth without anyone having to be right or wrong, because ultimately PERSONAL truth is whatever you believe it to be.

Warm regards
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

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ConfirmationBias wrote:As a statistician, the odds are 1-in-7.8, and if you take what happened to you,
Thats not the stats on waking ONCE a night, and seeing those numbers, THREE NIGHTS IN A ROW. At that time, I did not wake at night. Try the same idea with George's experience of waking night after night, and always at 11:11PM. THESE THINGS ARE NOT STATISTICALLY LIKELY. As a matter of fact, that sequence has never happened to me again, not in ? not sure, seven, eight years.

By the way, you seem to have not noticed the most important thing I said. We do not watch clocks. If you do, discard ALL of your data. Try NOT watching clocks. Heck, remove all clocks from your life.

And regarding that number plate, we have a heck of a lot of different format allowed number plates in NSW. That black 1111 is a rare plate. But there is still only one car with that number. Yes there is a car with 111, and a car with 11, maybe even a car with 11111 (although I don't think black number only plates went that high.) We have many plate sequences here, and the majority have letters and numbers, 3 of each.

But I see we are actually wasting our time here. If you want to believe there is no external cause, so be it.
True wrote:I can only say to you allow what is your truth to be your truth, and allow what others truth to them to be their truth without anyone having to be right or wrong, because ultimately PERSONAL truth is whatever you believe it to be
I totally agree with that. Our job here is to share. If it does not resonate with CB, so be it.

take care,
Geoff
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

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These conventional scientific explanations being tossed about don't account for the intuitive nudging, the human emotion and subsequent life changing experiences involved. The analysis is performed without even considering the most important factors. That is analytical bias in itself. So many people wouldn't be here talking about this phenomenon right now unless they were passionately moved by their experiences in some way. We are all more than intelligent enough to detect insignificant randomness and casual coincidences in life. We weren't born yesterday. We don't need a math test or an equation to explain our feelings for us. Some things exist beyond that archaic paradigm. If you're unable to recognize it that it's OK. But please don't attempt to reduce a lifetime worth of interconnecting patterns, meaningful occurrences and sentiments down to the lowest common denominator to borrow a mathematical expression. You don't know me and you don't know what I've been through. I say that with all due respect. :)

I'm by no means anti-science. But even Einstein has since been proven wrong many times. My point? You can be wrong too.

http://news.yahoo.com/strange-particles ... 10201.html

Strange Particles May Travel Faster than Light, Breaking Laws of Physics
Nothing goes faster than the speed of light. At least, we didn't think so.

New results from the CERN laboratory in Switzerland seem to break this cardinal rule of physics, calling into question one of the most trusted laws discovered by Albert Einstein.

Physicists have found that tiny particles called neutrinos are making a 454-mile (730-kilometer) underground trip faster than they should — more quickly, in fact, than light could do. If the results are confirmed, they could throw much of modern physics into upheaval.....
"All matter is merely energy condensed to a slow vibration. That we are all one consciousness experiencing itself subjectively. There is no such thing as death, life is only a dream, and we are the imagination of ourselves."
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

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Yes science has now been shown to have few clothes. No doubt they will pick themselves up, but the curious thing about Einstein, is he HATED paranormal stuff. He REFUSED to accept that remote entanglement could be true, even as he acknowledged that it logically was a part of quantum mechanics. And now remote entanglement has been proven. And Einstein disproven. Who would have thought....

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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

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M.O.M. wrote:
So many people wouldn't be here talking about this phenomenon right now unless they were passionately moved by their experiences in some way. We are all more than intelligent enough to detect insignificant randomness and casual coincidences in life.
And True wrote:
As a former skeptic turned believer I can only say to you allow what is your truth to be your truth, and allow what others truth to them to be their truth without anyone having to be right or wrong, because ultimately PERSONAL truth is whatever you believe it to be.
Now ain't that the truth! Well said you two!

LOVE!!!!
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

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You can look at the clock 1000 times during the day, you will not even remember the 999 times you look at the clock and see 23:11, 14:26 or 03:28
That's because those numerous other times do not correspond with a life changing experience or at least an epiphany of some kind. That's the whole point. It's almost insulting when your argument is predicated on the notion that we're unable to tell the difference. I've experienced many coincidences in my life. Genuine instances of random chance are easy to recognize. But so is an obvious cause and effect relationship. When detectable patterns begin to emerge it becomes only logical to take notice. We have collectively taken notice of these predictable outcomes. In my opinion to categorically dismiss our experiences as mere coincidence is like saying that it's only a coincidence that every time you get punched in the face it hurts. Again, I'm not being hostile here. I'm just being honest in a brutal form. :hithere
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

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Geoff wrote:Yes science has now been shown to have few clothes. No doubt they will pick themselves up, but the curious thing about Einstein, is he HATED paranormal stuff. He REFUSED to accept that remote entanglement could be true, even as he acknowledged that it logically was a part of quantum mechanics. And now remote entanglement has been proven. And Einstein disproven. Who would have thought....

love,
Geoff

Spooky action at a distance? What? Really? Einstein was confused :D

I believe that every cell in our bodies contain their own cellular memories. Memory is not restricted to the brain. I think it was in the book 'The Field' where I first read about that concept.

http://theophanes.hubpages.com/hub/Cell ... Recipients

Inherited Memories in Organ Transplant Recipients
...One of the few cases we know the patient's name was a woman called Claire Sylvia who received a heart and lung transplant in the 1970's from an eighteen year old male donor who had been in a motorcycle accident. None of this information was known to Sylvia, who upon waking up claimed she had a new and intense craving for beer, chicken nuggets, and green peppers, all food she didn't enjoy prior to the surgery. A change in food preferences is probably the most noted in heart transplant patients. Sylvia wrote a book about her experiences after learning the identity of her donor called A Change of Heart....
"All matter is merely energy condensed to a slow vibration. That we are all one consciousness experiencing itself subjectively. There is no such thing as death, life is only a dream, and we are the imagination of ourselves."
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by Geoff »

MasterOfMyself wrote:I believe that every cell in our bodies contain their own cellular memories. Memory is not restricted to the brain. I think it was in the book 'The Field' where I first read about that concept.

http://theophanes.hubpages.com/hub/Cell ... Recipients
I accept some curious stuff has gone on with organ transplants, but the notion of cellular memory as a source of "past life" memory recall has been invalidated by a researcher. I have included that in my own book on the subject. The researcher was Dr Stanislof Grof.

However, that is not to say that our cells are not used to hold our memories. That would explain the transplant organ stuff. But clearly after we are dust to dust, all that remains of us might be the dna we passed on to someone else. And that was the subject of some experiments he did, although I think it was fortuitous that he came across the example he did. And the events of our life are still available, certainly to us after death, as also to others. So they go somewhere more permanent than our cells. George has commented once or twice on the midwayers "storing" stuff externally for later access, which is very curious.

take care,
Geoff
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

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Geoff wrote:
MasterOfMyself wrote:I believe that every cell in our bodies contain their own cellular memories. Memory is not restricted to the brain. I think it was in the book 'The Field' where I first read about that concept.

http://theophanes.hubpages.com/hub/Cell ... Recipients
I accept some curious stuff has gone on with organ transplants, but the notion of cellular memory as a source of "past life" memory recall has been invalidated by a researcher. I have included that in my own book on the subject. The researcher was Dr Stanislof Grof.

However, that is not to say that our cells are not used to hold our memories. That would explain the transplant organ stuff. But clearly after we are dust to dust, all that remains of us might be the dna we passed on to someone else. And that was the subject of some experiments he did, although I think it was fortuitous that he came across the example he did. And the events of our life are still available, certainly to us after death, as also to others. So they go somewhere more permanent than our cells. George has commented once or twice on the midwayers "storing" stuff externally for later access, which is very curious.

take care,
Geoff
Could you briefly summarize how it was invalidated? Was it based upon one example or longstanding research of multiple claims? I don't have a vested interest either way. I'm just curious. I have only a passing interest in the subject and my investigations have been limited so I'm not qualified to debate. :D

I agree 100% with the latter of your statement. I do believe that the spirit body is the ultimate container and spiritual blueprint for who and what we are physically. Are you familiar with phantom pain? I believe that is an expression of spiritual memory.

Ultimately is see all things both physical and otherwise as being comprised of spiritual energy. Physical matter in my mind is nothing more than dense energy vibrating at a relatively low rate. Relative in comparison to the spirit world that is. For that reason I do believe that even cells retain some degree of memory as it has been described. For even the cells of the human body are built from the same cosmic putty that consists of all things. There can be no separation from what we call the oneness. Whether we exist as matter or spirit. The building materials are the same. How we percieve the end result however varies. Our perceptions of reality are molded by the point of reference from which we view it. The human body therefore perceives reality much differently than the spiritual "body". The energy however remains the same.

Just my opinion. :D
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Re: Confirmation Bias: Keep an accurate record

Post by Geoff »

MasterOfMyself wrote:Could you briefly summarize how it was invalidated? Was it based upon one example or longstanding research of multiple claims? I don't have a vested interest either way. I'm just curious. I have only a passing interest in the subject and my investigations have been limited so I'm not qualified to debate. :D
He was doing the usual "past life" regression stuff. A bit more contentious than others, cause he was also using psychotic drugs in his research. Had a "patient" that recalled a "past life" very vividly. She eventually researched this data, and was able to "prove" who it was. A young man who was killed at a young age. Since he died childless, the memory could not have been cellular, or in her dna. But it was a relative, curiously. Which suggested to me it was quite likely a memory from an adjacent spirit entity, one who was interested in her.

take care,
Geoff
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