
Re: "Statistical Fatalism"
New concept: The future can be inaccurately predicted from analysis of the past
and the inaccuracy can increase with the greater distance from the past.
For example, prediction that Covid-19 will not resolve for 18 months may not
factor in the many minds/groups working to minimize the length of resolution.
And, today, information is much more abundant and easily shared - worldwide;
information is not limited to time-consuming printed materials.
Also, immunity is created by exposure to bacteria/viruses. If 60% of Americans
will get Covid-19 and 80% will have mild (or no) symptoms, then a good percentage
of the population will then have immunity for a subsequent wave of the virus.
This is proven already by antibodies from recovered patients being effective
in reducing the severity of symptoms in current patients:

Re:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/19/2118 ... n-covid-19
"The immune system usually produces antibodies, which can bind to and deactivate viruses ...
Those antibodies provide an infected person a level of protection from the virus in the future"

Speaking of concept ...
There is much discussion that a poor immune system is responsible for severity
of the virus. Well ... the immune system may have been slow (or ineffective)
in its initial response, but typical complications (inflammation, cellular debris, etc.)
are a result of overwhelming attack by the immune system. Perhaps, the problem
was simply poor communication to the immune system initially.
Rod
